KUALA LUMPUR, Jan 14 — Frost and Sullivan has predicted a 4.5 per cent growth for automotive sales this year and expects the country’s total industry volume (TIV) to rebound with a “historic high” of 555,000 units, due to the projected economic recovery and improved consumer confidence for 2010.
Kavan Mukhtyar, partner and head of the Automotive and Transportation Practice, Asia Pacific at Frost and Sullivan, believes that the main thrust of the automotive recovery will be the replacement car market.
“A substantial number of Malaysians who purchased their vehicles from 2003 to 2005 may look at replacing their cars in 2010. There are also prospective buyers, who deferred their purchase in 2009, [who] are also expected to replace their cars in 2010 as the economy recovers,” he said during a media briefing at the Frost and Sullivan office here.
He added that the vehicle sales growth will be aided by the launch of several key models last year, and the country’s young population.
“The vehicle sales will be aided by the key models launched late last year such as Perodua Alza and Kia Forte. Proton’s new C/D segment model scheduled to be launched this year will also boost vehicle sales growth.
“Malaysia’s significant young population will also provide an impetus for vehicle sales growth in the long term. I foresee that the number of first-time car buyers will increase in the next few years and this will be a key growth driver for entry-level cars,” he said.
Frost and Sullivan expects multi-purpose vehicles (MPV) to be the fastest growing while passenger cars will be the slowest growth segments in sales this year.
“The multi-purpose vehicle will be the fastest segment, increasing [by] 12.7 per cent in 2010 to 68,000 units due to the intense competition among Proton Exora and Perodua Alza.
“Passenger cars will be the slowest growth segment at 3.2 per cent year-on-year due to the lack of new mass market model, as well as some passenger car customers opting for the entry-level MPVs. However, passenger cars will remain as the biggest contributor to the Malaysian total vehicle sales, accounting for about 75.3 per cent.
“Demand for commercial vehicles is expected to increase by 5 per cent year-on-year to 52, 345 units while 4x4 sports utility vehicles is likely to grow by 7.9 per cent year-on-year to 11,210 units,” he said.
Vehicle sales in 2009 ended 3.1 per cent lower year-on-year at 531,000 units, as compared to Frost and Sullivan’s earlier forecasted TIV of 501,500.
“The better than expected TIV for 2009 was due to the Malaysian government’s stimulus package, scrapping incentive scheme for Proton and Perodua and continued strong sales of Perodua’s Myvi and Viva and Proton Saga,” he said.
Mukhtyar also pointed out that the voluntary scrapping incentive has “softened the downtrend” in vehicle sales and added that 31,000 new cars were sold due to the incentive last year.
Frost and Sullivan estimated that automotive sales in East Malaysia have grown by about 3.4 per cent in 2009, compared to a 4.7 per cent decline in Peninsular Malaysia.
“In 2009, the commercial vehicles segment increased at 11.5 per cent year-on-year in East Malaysia, reflecting a more robust economy in Sabah and Sarawak due to increased development activities,” he said.
Perodua continues to hold its position as the country’s leading carmaker in 2009, with a 33.4 per cent share in the country’s automotive market. Proton, the second largest vehicle manufacturer in the country with a 30.4 per cent, has managed to increase its market share by 1.9 per cent, thanks to sales from its Exora in the MPV segment.
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